By Election Study Phase 2
STATUS: Current
PROJECT LEADER:
Roberts, BJ (Dr Benjamin)OTHER TEAM MEMBERS:
Govender, K (Ms Koshen),
Reddy, D (Ms Deshanie),
Walters, M (Ms Melissa),
Mamba, BM (Ms Busi),
Struwig, J (Dr Jare)DEPARTMENT RESPONSIBLE:
Developmental, Capable and Ethical State (DCES)
Abstract
Building on the work in Phase 1, the focus of this component of the research would entail working with the Electoral Commission in order to: (i) include historical data on by-elections that occurred prior to the 2016 Municipal Election; (ii) update the database to include any subsequent by-elections that have occurred since the creation of the database.
More fully populating the database with older by-election data is a critical step in providing a more comprehensive and technically sophisticated analysis of patterns of turnout in by-elections in the country. This would move the demographic profile beyond basic descriptive analysis by ensuring that there are sufficient cases with which to perform multivariate analysis. It will also allow for inclusion of a longitudinal perspective, by allowing us to determine whether there are distinct or emerging signs of variation over time based on the age, gender and geographic location of voters.
It is envisaged that these results would be compiled into an Electoral Commission report that could be updated on a periodic basis preferably annually in order to chart the level of stability or change in demographic patterns underlying the by-election experience. This will be important for distilling lessons that could be used to inform operational planning for future by-elections.
