SAAMIP Southern Africa Agricutural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (SAAMIP)
Abstract
Climate change requires a regional action in the Southern Africa to prepare for and protect a climate change scenario for migration purposes as well as food security needs. To this end there is a need understand the impact of climate on the production and prices of staple nutritionally important crops such as Maize, Sorghum, Sugarcane, Wheat, Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes in the Southern African region (South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Botswana and Namibia) using climate, crop and economic simulation models.
In Southern Africa, with its erratic climatic conditions and water scarcity, there are enormous challenges in producing staple food crops. As a result, production and price level fluctuation are key impacts of climate change in the region. Coupling economic and crop models with predictions of climate models can be used as a simulated approach to develop adaption strategies to climate change.
This project involving Maize cultivation around Bethlehem in the Free State contributes to the Southern Africa climate change and adaption effort by evaluating the impacts of projected climate change scenarios and simulations on the production and prices of staple nutritionally important crops. In South Africa some of the marginal western areas are predicted to become unsuitable for crop production. An increase in pests and diseases will also have a detrimental effect on the agricultural sector. Both crop (dryland and irrigated) and livestock agricultural systems will be adversely affected by anticipated increases in evaporation and water scarcity. In this instance maize production is used.
Key objectives include:
(1) To compare historical and future maize production systems (mean yield and distribution/variability across fields) simulated using DSSAT and APSIM crop models for a selected district using past and future climate data (5 GCMs).
(2) To characterise risks of future maize production systems in a selected district using Trade-Off Analysis for Multidimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) economics model.
